Conflict: India, U.S, China and Iran; or why the Sri Lanka c

[narathar]

Conflict: India, U.S, China and Iran; or why the Sri Lanka crisis has to be resolved soon

By: GeeKay

Source: Northeastern Monthly - July 2006

The focal point of contemporary international politics is the Persian Gulf. Globalisation’s future lies in securing the Indian Ocean, for which a contest is on between the United States of America and its allies on the one hand, and the People’s Republic of China and its friends, on the other. An important part of this contest is the steps taken by the US to contain Iran. Therefore, the reason for the US intensifying its aggression towards Iran is not due to any political tangle between the two countries, but because the latter plays a decisive role in international relations. It also becomes the primary problem of the entire Indian Ocean region. Our little island too cannot be ignorant or dismissive of its importance.

The long-term strategy of China is to oppose the US in Asia as well as in other parts of the world says Zen Jon Ling a former Chinese diplomat now domiciled in Australia (1). By that he means China imposing its control on the Asian region and beyond by opposing US commercial and economic interests.

According to Zen, China is wary of US foreign policy, which preserves friendly ties between them while making containment moves at the same time (2). Therefore China is using its naval presence in Myanmar (Burma), the Maldives, Pakistan and Iran in order to establish its dominance and power in the Indian Ocean region.

It is important to note that in the wake of joint military exercises carried out by China and Russia in August last year, an American official commented that China wanted to remove US bases from Central Asia and its (US) presence from Asia as well (3).

To prepare for this China is upgrading its navy and intensifying its grip on the Indian Ocean. This is because it is impossible to contemplate dominance of Asia while abandoning the India Ocean. The lap of Asia for commerce and economic interests is the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, it is also an area that controls the process of globalisation.

Through its moves to dominate the Indian Ocean, China is attempting to build the foundations for a bipolar political system in place of unipolar arrangements. It is using the historic enemy of the western world – the Islamic countries – as its allies to expand its scale of operations.

The world economy is dependent on crude oil that is transported by tankers every day from the Persian Gulf through the Indian Ocean. The volume of oil transported through the Straits of Malacca every day is 9.5 million barrels. This is three times the amount of what is transported through the Suez Canal. It is 15 times the volume of what goes through the Panama Canal.

The Gulf which contains 65% of the world’s resources in oil is of paramount importance for energy and growth. If there are impediments in the transport of oil here, it would adversely affect the global economy (4). Further, 30,000 ships and 1500 tankers ply the Indian Ocean for economic and commercial reasons every year (5). The population of Indian Ocean Rim countries is 35% of the global total. It is also the source of 5.5% of the world’s total manufacture. Therefore, the Indian Ocean countries are the world’s biggest market (6).

Whether it is for energy requirements, for commercial transportation, or for markets, the world economy depends on the Indian Ocean. Therefore, it is imperative for the western powers under the US that nobody threatens their dominance of the region.

China’s growing importance in the Indian Ocean and the growth of Iran as a strong naval power in the oil-rich Persian Gulf that abuts on the Indian Ocean, are posing a threat to the international system that is dominated by the West (7).

At present, only Iran has the political potential to instigate what is known as the ‘green danger,’ that is an uprising of Islamic fundamentalism that the West dreads so much. Since China is friendly with a power that has such a capability, Iran’s influence over the future of China is great. Similarly, Iran’s bargaining power against the West too will increase. Besides, both the Iranian and Chinese navies will become a threat in the Indian Ocean. This will give new impetus to China to wrest the Indian Ocean from control by the West.

If the grip of the West over the Indian Ocean falters and China gains the upper hand, it will be able to reap much economic benefits. Due to this acquisition of power Asian third world countries will begin to tilt towards China. The West’s dreams of world domination will disintegrate. It is in this context that the US, which controls Iraq and Afghanistan, wants to wage war on Iran.

Despite the naval base in Oman that is open to the western powers and the combined forces of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), they are not equal to Iran’s powerful navy (8).

The US’s policy is to knock Iran out before China acquires the economic clout that will give it the capability to throw a challenge at the West. If Iran is knocked out of the equation it would be equal to clipping one of China’s wings.

India, which favours a multi-polar international system emerging, and wants to be a powerful factor in that set up, needs to strengthen its hold on the Indian Ocean. It is however important for India that Iran is defeated due to its traditional rivalry with China. Therefore, the confrontation with Iran does not mean the US will go to war alone, because India would as well.

Though it has had friendly relations with Iran for a long time, and despite having signed an agreement with that country to acquire oil through a pipeline, India is giving the US unconditional support for the war against Iran because of its rivalry with China.

It is important to isolate Iran from other Islamic countries if the US hopes to defeat it. Iraq, which was a country with significant clout in the region, has been already contained. So has been Afghanistan. Today, Pakistan, which is on Iran’s eastern border, is the only Islamic nuclear power. But it will be inappropriate for the US to wage war against Pakistan and bring it to its knees. It has to have Pakistan on its side. Without that, waging war against Iran would be impossible (9).

Therefore, though Pakistan is within China’s circle of friendly nations, the US will cultivate Pakistan’s friendship till its war in the Gulf is concluded. Pakistan’s bargaining power with the US would be high, while its bargaining power with China will be at its zenith because whatever stance Pakistan adopts, China would have to put up with it. Until China establishes itself in the Indian Ocean it will not have the bargaining power to prevent such tilts. It will have to absorb them. This applies to all countries in the region – including Sri Lanka.

Pakistan that considers India its enemy will exploit this two-way bargaining power to the maximum to increase its economic and military capability. It is because of this reason that Pakistan is cooperating with the West.

Therefore, it is imperative for the US to absorb India-Pakistan rivalry till it emerges victorious in the Gulf. When compared to Pakistan, India’s bargaining power with the US will be limited until the latter emerges victorious in the Gulf. Till the Gulf War is over the US will have to give in to Pakistan’s demands and India would have to give in to US interests.

However, once the West is able to wrest control of the Gulf it is unlikely that Pakistan would remain among its circle of friendly countries. As an Islamic country that has in its possession the nuclear bomb, defeating Pakistan will not only be a priority for India but will become the West’s as well. Therefore India is prepared to tolerate Pakistan till the West is successful in containing Iran and free to turn its attention further eastward.

The only way whereby India can either accommodate or prevent the West’s need to sustain Indo-Pakistan rivalry and Pakistan’s growth by exploiting its two-way bargaining power, is to support the US by hastening a favourable conclusion in the Gulf war. After the Gulf is secured, India will become the West’s major ally against China. Due to this it can enjoy power to bargain unconditionally with the West. The West will be compelled to support India in all decisions in the region. This will bring about a situation where whatever is India’s decision, that would be the West’s too.

Therefore India will be launching pad for the West’s strategy for the future containment of China. In such a situation, the West will have to make unconditional concessions to Indian demands as far as the Indian Ocean region is concerned. India’s plans to defeat China in this region will be America’s endeavour as well.

In such an environment India will hasten to implement its regional policy on South Asia. The West too will not be in a position to ask India questions but only cooperate with it. And the foremost question will be Sri Lanka. And as to the question whether it would be the Sinhalese or the Tamils who gain an upper hand in the politics of the country, the answer will be provided by India. If an international environment is created which suits India’s traditional thinking that Sri Lanka being a part of India, who could ensure the Island’s individuality and separateness?

What the above thesis is trying to emphasise is that the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka should be resolved before the new international order emerges after a western victory in the Gulf without giving India an opportunity to poke its nose in the Island’s affairs. If it is separate state for the Tamils it will not affect the Sinhalese; if it shared rule it will not affect the Tamils.

Endnotes

(1) Soldier of Fortune December 2005

(2) Ibid

(3) Ibid

(4) Razak Rear Admiral (rtd.) A.M.M ‘Maritime Security in the Indian Ocean’ paper presented at the BCIS 25-26 January 2006

(5) Ibid

(6) Ibid

(7) Ibid

(8) Ibid

(9) M. Thirunavakarasu (personal interview with the author 1 June 2006)

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