இராஜபக்சே மூன்றாவது தடவையாகவும் சனாதிபதியாகலாம் - Economist Intelligence Unit

The growing influence of the small clique led by members of Rajapaksha family threatens Sri Lanka's long-term institutional stability - EIU

• It is doubtful that much progress will be made on political solution.
• Isolated terrorist attacks could occur across the island
• Rajapaksa  will be strongly placed to win a third term
• Relations between the UPFA and Western governments will remain tense

Sri Lanka: Outlook for 2013-17 by Economist Intelligence Unit

Political stability
The president, Mahinda Rajapaksa of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), is idolised as the man who in May 2009 defeated the rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE, Tamil Tigers). He was re-elected for a second six-year term in January 2010. The ruling United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA, of which the SLFP is the main component) also won a landslide victory in the parliamentary poll in April 2010 and has performed strongly in elections for provincial councils in 2011-12.

The government is not expected to face any significant parliamentary challenges during the remainder of its six-year term, given its exceptionally large majority. Mr Rajapaksa runs a highly personalised, populist administration. His position was strengthened in 2010 by a constitutional amendment that increased the president's powers and reduced checks on his office while simultaneously removing the term limit for the presidency. In January 2013 Mr Rajapaksa ratified a vote by parliament to impeach the chief justice, Shirani Bandaranayake, who was removed from office under charges of misconduct and corruption—allegations that she denies. The impeachment of Ms Bandaranayake, once a close ally of Mr Rajapaksa, underscores a sharp rise in tensions between the executive and the judiciary, owing to the fact that the latter has issued rulings unfavourable to the government in recent months.

1. The growing influence of the small clique surrounding Mr Rajapaksa and led by members of his family threatens to undermine Sri Lanka's long-term institutional stability.

2. Although the LTTE has been defeated, splits in Sri Lankan society are unlikely to be healed in the forecast period.

3. The UPFA has claimed that it will address Tamil grievances by devolving more power to the island's provinces, but Mr Rajapaksa's bias towards a centralised style of leadership make it doubtful that much progress will be made on this front.

In recent months there has been growing speculation that the administration will seek to abolish the system of provincial councils, established by the 13th amendment to the constitution. Although the government remains reticent about its plans in this regard, abolishing the provincial councils could deal a further blow to prospects for reconciliation between the island's various ethnic groups, which has been predicated on the devolution of power.

The government has also been strongly criticised for its refusal to investigate human rights abuses committed
towards the end of the civil war. Anti-Tamil discrimination will remain a major social problem. If the government is able to promote economic development in the east and north of the country, this could help to lessen resentment in the Tamil community. However, there are concerns about the role of the military in the economic and political life of Tamil-majority areas, particularly in the north. Although the LTTE is not expected to re-emerge as a major threat, the Tamil separatist movement has deep roots and isolated terrorist attacks could occur across the island.
 

Critics of the government or the president in the media, civil society and abroad will continue to face an aggressive response by the authorities. Many journalists have been physically attacked, and media outlets that have criticised Mr Rajapaksa's administration have been forced to close. But such intimidation has only partially muted media critics of government policy.

http://www.srilankabrief.org/2013/02/the-growing-influence-of-small-clique.html

Edited February 10, 201312 yr by akootha