More Than 4.6 Million Shots
Given: Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker

The biggest vaccination campaign in history has begun. More than 4.6 million doses in 16 countries have been administered, according to data collected by Bloomberg. Delivering billions more will be one of the greatest logistical challenges ever undertaken.

Vaccinations in the U.S. began Dec. 14 with health-care workers, and so far 2.13 million doses have been administered, according to a nationwide tally from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Bloomberg is also tracking doses at the state and territory level to give a picture of how the rollout is going nationwide.

The U.S. is managing distribution of Pfizer and BioNTech’s vaccine , as well as Moderna’s shot, with the goal of getting 20 million doses distributed before early January. Both vaccines require two doses taken several weeks apart. The second doses are being held in reserve until they’re ready to be administered.

Global Effort to Stop Covid

Countries in the EU are beginning vaccinations this week. The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine has now been approved across North America, Europe and the Middle East. That shot and the vaccine from Moderna were both found to reduce coronavirus infections by 95% in trials of tens of thousands of volunteers.

Other countries got a head start on vaccinations. China and Russia authorized their own shots in July and August, before they’d been fully tested. Since then, they’ve vaccinated more than a million people.

The R&D Timeline

Bloomberg is tracking the development of nine of the globe’s most promising vaccines. A total of six vaccines are now available for public use, in limited quantities, in dozens of countries.

Nations have poured billions of dollars into developing new vaccine technologies, testing them in thousands of volunteers, scaling up manufacturing, and then bringing them to market in record time.

None of these shots, on its own, is enough to inoculate a global population of some 7.8 billion people. But together they represent humanity’s best chance of ending a scourge that has claimed more than 1.7 million lives and triggered global economic calamity.

Vaccine Contracts

Desperate for relief from the worst pandemic in a century, countries have struck deals to secure vaccine access. By our count, 8.15 billion doses have already been set aside.

That would be enough to cover more than half the world’s population (most vaccines use two doses), if the shots were distributed evenly. That, however, hasn’t happened. Rich countries have accumulated extensive supply deals, and ultra-cold storage requirements make some vaccines difficult to deliver to far-flung places. Some countries may have to wait until 2022 or later before supplies are widely available.

AstraZeneca Plc’s two-dose shot is the early leader, with pre-purchase agreements that would cover 1.46 billion people—more than twice as many as any other candidate. In total, Bloomberg has identified more than 90 agreements.

Not every vaccine is certain to work. Bloomberg has removed from the tally 51 million doses reserved by Australia for a homegrown vaccine that failed in clinical trials on Dec. 10. A day later, Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline Plc announced a delay in their clinical trials after suffering their own setback.

Strategies to secure vaccines varied widely. The U.S. struck unilateral deals for all of its supply. Dozens of countries will get vaccines through Covax, a consortium backed by the World Health Organization to ensure equitable vaccine distribution. An arrangement brokered by Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim will deliver cheap vaccines throughout most of Latin America.

Deals were included in Bloomberg’s analysis only if they had information on which company will make the vaccine, how many doses are covered, and which countries are likely to receive it. Billions of vaccines will likely be manufactured outside of such agreements. India, which has deals to manufacture 2.2 billion doses, plans to send vaccines to other countries in its region.

Coronavirus vaccines are coming to market at a record pace, shaving years off the typical development time. That speed has been financed in part by rich countries like the U.S., whose Operation Warp Speed program helped subsidize development and manufacturing of half a dozen novel vaccines.

Wealth has moved those countries to the front of the line. It’s also allowed some to hedge their bets by securing doses from a variety of manufacturers. Canada, with its population of 38 million, has contracts with at least seven companies to supply enough vaccines for 112 million people—and that doesn’t include vaccines it agreed to buy through the Covax consortium.

Russia and China aren’t striking the same sorts of deals. Instead, they’ll rely on domestically produced vaccines, such as the Sputnik V shots made by Moscow-based Gamaleya Center or those made by China’s state-owned pharmaceutical giant, Sinopharm. While China doesn’t disclose how many doses the government orders from local manufacturers, it’s assumed that those companies will provide as much as the population needs.