India and USA largely dictate the so called international community’s (IC’s) policy on the Sri Lankan conflict. India and USA increasingly have common objectives to counter regionally and internationally making them strategic partners of the future. The conflict in Sri Lanka is no different when it comes to their partnership; in-fact they stand together to gain from it.

Then...

India as the regional bully/mercenary attempted the containment policy through a temporarily merged North-East back in 1987 in return for maintaining a military presence in parts of the island. In the process India dictated through military muscle of IPKF a weak and cosmetic political solution on the minority Tamils; a solution to a conflict that stems from the lack of constitutional safeguards against the tyranny of the majority Sinhalese. The resultant bitter lesson learned by the ordinary Tamils who truly believed that "mother India" will safeguard their rights is that India was only after her own national interest.

Now...

Nearly 15 years later there was a sense of deja- vu with the euphoria over the 2002 CFA. This time around the stage is not regional but international and some of the front line actors are different. However the objective and policy of the behind the scene players didn’t change much. The objective remains containment and weakening of the struggle for independence by the Tamils. The means deployed was different in the sense international diplomacy coupled with pressure applied externally through the banning of LTTE and engineering Karun’s split to weaken LTTE from within.

Its well know that IC and Ranil plotted the Karun’s split to weaken the Tamils if they couldn’t circumvent the interim solutions for normalization, rehabilitation and reconstruction for the Tamil homeland while attempting to drag the so called peace process without any tangible benefits for the war weary Tamils in order to disillusion them to submission. The unexpected sacking of the Ranil’s government by then President Chandrika lead to an abrupt end to this grand plan of IC and near wasted and unceremonious announcement by Karuna about his split. The plans shifted to a shadow war targeting the journalist, intellects and other community leaders who stood for the united North-East and Tamil nation. The aim was to silence public voices and prepare the ground for a local election that was to follow after the presidential election.

What if...

IC earnestly waited for Ranil to sweep to powers helped by the votes of minority Tamils who were expected to naively interpret the shadow war as the result of "peace dove" Ranil losing power. The revised wishful thinking of IC would have been to politically weaken East out of the Tamil homeland by using Karuna’s political party and install a puppet local government through stuffed ballot boxes. The international observers/critics would have simply overlooked or in the worst case making a mockery of democracy would have given accreditation to the whole political gimmick. The next phase of the plot would have been to pursue a Palestine style divide and conquer policy where a corrupt party like Fatah is propped-up with so called (Western) "aid money" even though its popularity among the people it claims to represent is laughable while Hamaz with popular support is vilified as terrorists and sidelined. In the mean time the talk of peace talks and the all party conference would have continued into many more episodes feeding to the news hungry media and entertaining the public. Moves to isolate LTTE internationally would intensify with more vilification, on more fictitious charges and minor technical issues that are blown out of proportion while TMVP is injected with steroids of legitimacy and democratic values for the final show. The show is to attempt a cosmetic development of the East with an installed local government while promoting other Quislings for a similar "Northern solution". Well orchestrated in partnership with IC’s pet government of Ranil would have been hoped to further maroon LTTE. All this would have meant that IC, Sri Lankan government and other anti-Tamil forces would have kept largely a "political" initiative well coordinated to isolate and weaken LTTE. The choices left for Tamils would have been very limited if not one. For which the Sri Lankan military would have respond and went ahead to "clear" parts of the East as it has done now.

But...

Tamils decision to boycott the presidential election was believed to have led to the defeat of a pro-IC candidate Ranil. Irritated by their pet candidate’s defeat IC decided to tacitly back the hard-line President Rajapakse on his military aggression in Tamil homeland. The decision was expected to serve at least the following purposes:

• Punish Tamils and send a stern warning on going against IC’s wishes in future,
  
• Set the stage and expedite the removal of Rajapakse government,
  
• Make use of the time and Rajapakse to secure East militarily which would also serve the above 2.
  

In short, the defeat of Ranil has forced the IC to support and start with the military initiative prematurely which was originally planned to be executed after cooking up the moral and ethical base for it with a well orchestrated political show in the East. As a result IC that has lost its moral high ground by tacitly supporting the hardliner Mahinda is further under pressure internationally with the catastrophic failures in the Iraq/Afghanistan front and the back-firing of the general "war on terror" sloganeering. The moves to topple Rajapakse government are gathering moment. Rajapakse brothers getting the hang of the international diplomacy gave into ACSA while playing the Chinese card effectively and benefiting from their trusted & matured relationship with China. IC for its part promotes Ranil and plotting a new alliance with Mangala and former President Chandrika who also hold the label of Bandaranayke dynasty. Essentially the 2 step approach has reversed in the order of execution with the IC's struggle for regime change in the south added in the middle with the political gimmick to follow as the next.

Future...

Hence, the initiatives and focus will very much remain in the short to medium term on the southern polity and their handling of the IC’s agenda. Tamils should and will continue to be on the defensive leaving the initiative and focus to the south as in the past 2 years or so. It is a bigger challenge for those who take the initiative to delivery on their proclaimed intentions. The other party who challenges but does not take initiative would remain victorious by simply making enough efforts with the limited capacity to deny even part of those objectives. Those who take the initiative should also have the resources and will to sustain the campaign. The initiative will gradually lose momentum due to exhaustion and demoralization giving a window of opportunity for the challenger with the limited capacity & resources to gain control of the initiative. This is the basis for an asymmetric power balance that was also achieved after the failed Jeyasukuru initiative. As then Sinhala state’s ability to solicit for international support to muster political, diplomatic, financial, technical and military help to be on the offensive against Tamils remains the same. The emerging geopolitical realities are giving further leverage to the Sinhala state even though there is an inherent limitation on how much solicitation could be done or the tangible results it could ultimately deliver on the field. Certainly there are opportunities for Tamils if they are able tune themselves to the fine art of international diplomacy. The focus of Diaspora Tamils should be on the very thing cultivating it at the grass-root level while waiting for that window of opportunity to flex it in harmony. Premature calls for lifting the ban or rallying with the flags against the ban no matter how tempting or satisfying are only going to strengthen the agenda against us.

Related:

International Community eagerly awaits the fall of Jaffna

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http://www.eelamist.com/forum/viewtopic.ph...mp;p=1041#p1041

Edited July 20, 200718 yr by kurukaalapoovan

ஓம் யாவாரத்தில கூட்டு சேர்ந்தால் லாபம் கிடைக்கிறதுக்காக உவங்கள் எது செய்யவும் பயப்பட மாட்டாங்கள். நாங்கள் தாயென்று இந்தியாவை பார்ப்பதும் அவங்கள் தறுதலைகள் என்று எங்களை பார்ப்பதும்.. இந்த விசயங்கள் இன்னும் கூட பலருக்கு விளங்கிது இல்லையே?

..This time around the stage is not regional but international and some of the front line actors are different. However the objective and policy of the behind the scene players didn’t change much...

உண்மையோ உண்மை. தமிழரை இன்னும் பயங்கரவாதிகளாக்கி படம் காட்டுவதை தவிர வேறு முன்னேற்றங்கள் வந்ததாக தெரியவில்லை.

அணில் ஆட்சிக்கு வந்திருந்தால் இன்னும் பல விபரீதங்கள் ஏற்பட்டிருக்ககூடும் என்று சொல்வதும் சரியே. பலஸ்தீனம் இப்போது நாறி இருப்பது போல் தமிழரை தமிழருக்குள் கொழுவி விடுவதில் உந்த IC க்கு நிகர் IC தான்.

Essentially the 2 step approach has reversed in the order of execution with the IC's struggle for regime change in the south added in the middle with the political gimmick to follow as the next...

ஹிஹி... நல்ல ஒரு பகிடி... ஒருபக்கம் சுட்ட தோசைய தோச கல்லில இருந்து தட்டகப்பையால தூக்கி எடுத்து மற்றபக்கம் திருப்பி போடுறமாதிரி எண்டு சொல்லி இருக்கலாம்.

The focus of Diaspora Tamils should be on the very thing cultivating it at the grass-root level while waiting for that window of opportunity to flex it in harmony..

கு.போ அடிப்படையில இததானே இந்த கட்டுரையை இங்கு இணைத்ததன் மூலம் சொல்ல வாறீங்கள்? :P

நல்லா எழுதி இருக்கிறாங்க, விசயங்களை விளக்குவதற்கு வழமையாக தருவதைவிட வித்தியாசமான உதாரணங்கள் தரப்பட்டுள்ளது. யாருங்க சாமி இந்த கட்டுரையை எழுதிய புண்ணியவான்? அவருக்கு ஒரு ஓ போடலாம். ஓஓஓஓஓ...